China’s largest online shopping bonanza
wraps up on Monday, with analysts and investors watching for signs that
consumption is rebounding in the world’s second-largest economy after recent
efforts by Beijing to boost activity.
“Singles Day” — launched by tech giant Alibaba in 2009 — has ballooned into
an annual blockbuster period for retail, with days of discounts luring
customers to the country’s online shopping platforms.
Its name is a riff on the four ones in its date of November 11, or “11.11” —
the tongue-in-cheek celebration of singlehood is a key driver of sales for
Alibaba and its main competitor, JD.com.
Neither firm released detailed sales figures on last year’s Singles Day for
the second time running, with Alibaba saying only that it recorded growth
during the period.
Sluggish domestic consumption is among the top issues now facing policymakers
in China, which has struggled to achieve a full post-pandemic recovery.
Beijing has in recent weeks announced a slew of the most aggressive measures
in years aimed at bolstering growth, including key rate cuts and increasing
the debt limit for local governments.
But many economists argue that in the absence of large-scale fiscal stimulus
aimed at encouraging consumer spending, a return to the country’s robust pre-
pandemic trajectory may be difficult to attain.
This year’s Singles Day could represent a major boon for retail giants as
analysts watch for signs that recent measures are having an impact.
Analysts from the ING banking group said in a note last week that it expects
to see “solid growth numbers” during the event, which it said “should
comfortably outpace the overall consumption growth momentum”.
Consumer prices in China rose at a slower rate in October, official data
showed Saturday, in a further sign of languid demand.
Singles Day 2024 “is expected to generate over 1.2 trillion yuan ($167
billion)… representing a growth of 15 percent compared to the previous
year”, wrote VO2 Asia Pacific, a consultancy specialising in the digital
economy.
While the promotional campaigns could be effective in driving short-term
sales, managing partner Vincent Marion warned that the strategy could have
negative repercussions.
“Many consumers buy in bulk to reach discount thresholds, only to return the
products afterward,” said Marion, warning that the practice “erodes profit
margins and damages brand perception”.
Alibaba, like its main rival JD.com, withheld sales figures on the Singles
Day period for the first time ever in 2022, saying instead that sales were
flat from the previous year.